UAE summer to get hotter, more humid in 2026? Why El Niño may return to GCC
The UAE and the broader Gulf region may experience a noticeably hotter and more humid summer this year, as climate experts signal the likely return of the El Niño phenomenon in 2026. Early projections from global meteorological agencies suggest that conditions are aligning for its development in the coming months.
According to forecasts, there is a strong probability that El Niño could begin forming between May and July, with more than a 60 per cent chance of continuing through the rest of the year. Data referenced from organisations such as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate warming ocean temperatures beneath the Pacific surface, along with weakening trade winds—both key signals that typically precede an El Niño phase.
Experts expect the phenomenon to reach its peak towards late 2026, extending into early 2027. While current projections suggest a moderate event, there remains the possibility of a stronger phase developing if atmospheric conditions intensify, potentially nearing what scientists describe as a “Super El Niño.”
On a global scale, El Niño is known to influence weather patterns significantly. It can suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, disrupt monsoon systems in South Asia, and increase rainfall across parts of the Americas. It also contributes to a temporary rise in global temperatures.
For the Gulf region, the effects are expected to be more localised but still impactful. Changes in the Indian monsoon could redirect moisture toward the Arabian Peninsula, increasing humidity levels along coastal areas. Countries such as Oman and Yemen may also see improved rainfall during the late summer and autumn months.
Looking further ahead, weather patterns in winter could also shift. The Gulf may experience a higher frequency of rain-bearing systems, particularly across northern and eastern areas. These effects could become more pronounced if El Niño coincides with the Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate driver known to influence rainfall distribution.
Regional experts echo these projections, noting that early signs of Pacific Ocean warming are already emerging. El Niño, which typically occurs every few years, is often linked to rising temperatures, increased humidity, and more frequent heatwaves across Gulf countries including the UAE, Qatar, and parts of Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, the phenomenon may influence weather activity in surrounding seas. During autumn, there could be a greater likelihood of tropical systems forming in the Arabian Sea, potentially increasing cyclone activity in nearby regions such as the Gulf of Oman.
Overall, while the exact intensity remains uncertain, current indicators suggest that the Gulf could be heading toward a season marked by elevated temperatures, higher humidity, and shifting rainfall patterns—conditions closely associated with the return of El Niño.
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